I wouldn't call that long-term. More like near-term. Long-term in software development is more like 30-50 years. Let's not forget that programmers have been around for a looong time, and while software development is changing all the time, in the grand scheme of things, not much has changed. Also, there are certain political and economic realities involved in tech, so AI can't quickly displace an entire industry, or there's an economic collapse and political unrest. No industrial revolution happens overnight. AI isn't any different.